Product Description

The CPM Silver Yearbook 2OO7

Investors buy silver as a financial asset. It is seen as a hedge against economic, financial, and political upheaval. Many investors view silver as a companion to gold, while some investors prefer it to gold, due to its more volatile price behavior. In addition to all of these monetary and financial roles, silver is also an industrial commodity critical to photography, high-definition imaging, modern battery technology and electronics, engineering, chemical processes, and more.

To truly understand the full range of silver's applications, as well as its sources and the centuries worth of metal held in jewelry, silverware, and bullion form, you need information that only The CPM Silver Yearbook 2007 can provide.

CPM Group is the world's premier precious metals and commodities research and consulting company. Now, with The CPM Silver Yearbook 2007, Wall Street's top commodity research firm provides you with authoritative reference data, analysis, and yearly projections for one of the world's most important precious metals.

This invaluable resource contains a wealth of information for investors and traders who need to make fully informed investment decisions with regard to this commodity. Topics discussed range from the supply and demand fundamentals of silver to emerging trading and investment opportunities for this commodity.

Filled with in-depth insight and proven advice, The CPM Silver Yearbook 2007 contains all the information you need to succeed in this market.

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Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #650250 in Books
• Published on: 2007-06-04
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Hardcover
• 191 pages

From the Inside Flap

Soft, lustrous, white silver was one of the first metals known to humans. Pleasing to the eye and easy to work with, silver has attracted our interest for thousands of years—whether it be in the form of jewelry or as a way to build wealth.

Once a standard in the world monetary system, today silver plays an important role as both a financial investment and practical industrial commodity. Investors often purchase physical silver in either bullion bar or coin form, while in terms of fabrication demand this precious metal possesses many physical characteristics that make it a key component in numerous products used on a daily basis.

CPM Group is the world's premier precious metals and commodities research and consulting company. No one is more knowledgeable or better informed on the markets for silver, gold, platinum, palladium, and rhodium than this organization. And now, with The CPM Silver Yearbook 2007, Wall Street's top commodity research firm provides you with authoritative reference data, analysis, and yearly forecasts for one of the world's most important precious metals.

This invaluable resource provides a wealth of information for those who need to make fully informed investment decisions with regard to this commodity—whether you're an individual investor looking at the fundamental structure of the silver market or an institutional fund management company buying silver in physical bullion form, futures, forwards, options, or silver mining equities.

Information found within these pages includes:

• Supply and demand fundamentals displayed in easy-to-read charts and tables. More than eighty-five charts and fifty tables are included throughout the book

• Analysis spotlighting key issues to monitor in the market in order to discern emerging trading and investment opportunities

• Discussions and statistics on known and estimated bullion and bullion coin inventories

• The potential impact on the market over the next few years, during the rise of silver exchange-traded funds and other possible new investment vehicles

• Detailed discussions, accompanied by charts and tables, on the factors that stimulate investment demand for silver—including economic and financial market trends

• And much more

Filled with invaluable reference data, The CPM Silver Yearbook 2007 contains all the information needed to succeed in this market.

From the Back Cover

The CPM Silver Yearbook 2OO7

Investors buy silver as a financial asset. It is seen as a hedge against economic, financial, and political upheaval. Many investors view silver as a companion to gold, while some investors prefer it to gold, due to its more volatile price behavior. In addition to all of these monetary and financial roles, silver is also an industrial commodity critical to photography, high-definition imaging, modern battery technology and electronics, engineering, chemical processes, and more.

To truly understand the full range of silver's applications, as well as its sources and the centuries worth of metal held in jewelry, silverware, and bullion form, you need information that only The CPM Silver Yearbook 2007 can provide.

CPM Group is the world's premier precious metals and commodities research and consulting company. Now, with The CPM Silver Yearbook 2007, Wall Street's top commodity research firm provides you with authoritative reference data, analysis, and yearly projections for one of the world's most important precious metals.

This invaluable resource contains a wealth of information for investors and traders who need to make fully informed investment decisions with regard to this commodity. Topics discussed range from the supply and demand fundamentals of silver to emerging trading and investment opportunities for this commodity.

Filled with in-depth insight and proven advice, The CPM Silver Yearbook 2007 contains all the information you need to succeed in this market.

About the Author
CPM Group's research team has produced annual gold market reviews since the 1970s. The firm had its origins as the Research Department at J. Aron, the commodity trading company that merged into Goldman Sachs. CPM was spun off from Goldman Sachs in 1986. The firm provides numerous informational, analytic, and consulting services on precious metals and other commodities to producers, fabricators, central banks, governments, and the investment community.

Product Description

In recent years, metals have been among the safest and most lucrative investments around, but they are not entirely risk free. Before you begin investing or trading in metals, you need authoritative information and proven investment strategies. You need Precious Metal Investing For Dummies.

This straightforward guide eases you into the precious metals market with sound advice on trading and owning these profitable investments, including gold, silver, platinum, and uranium, as well as high-demand base metals such as zinc and copper. You’ll learn how to research their market performance and choose among an array of proven trading plans and strategies. Plus, you’ll get savvy advice on how to choose a broker, buy stocks and futures that involve metals, maximize your investment return, and minimize your risk. Discover how to:

• Evaluate the different metals
• Add metals to your portfolio
• Decide whether you’re an investor or a trader
• Identify your metal-investment goals
• Weigh the risks and benefits of metals investing
• Buy physical metals
• Use technical analysis to evaluate opportunities
• Make long-term investments in precious metals
• Diversify your metals investments
• Analyze base-metals companies
• Purchase numismatic coins
• Add metals to your mutual fund or ETF portfolio
• Understand how politics effects metals prices

Metals can be an important and valuable addition to any investment portfolio or retirement plan. Make the most out of your investment with Precious Metal Investing For Dummies.

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Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #45406 in Books
• Published on: 2008-02-05
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Paperback
• 360 pages

Features

• ISBN13: 9780470130872
• Condition: New
• Notes: BUY WITH CONFIDENCE, Over one million books sold! 98% Positive feedback. Compare our books, prices and service to the competition. 100% Satisfaction Guaranteed

From the Back Cover
Features proven trading plans and strategies

The fun and easy way to purchase and trade metal to strengthen your portfolio

Want to join the lucrative precious metals market? This straightforward guide gives you sound advice on trading as well as owning these profitable investments — from gold, silver, and platinum to uranium, zinc, and copper. You'll research their performance and choose your trading approach. Plus, you'll see how to find a broker, buy stocks and futures that involve metals, and minimize your risk.

Discover how to:

• Evaluate the different metals

• Add metals to your portfolio

• Weigh the benefits and risks

• Buy physical metals

• Use technical analysis

• Use precious metals for long-term investing

About the Author
Paul Mladjenovic is the owner of Prosperity Network and www.Super MoneyLinks.com. He is also the author of Stock Investing For Dummies, 2nd Edition.

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Customer Reviews

An Excellent Resource for the Precious Metals Investor or Someone Who Wants To Be
This is one of the best and most complete books on precious metals investing that I've read. It is great for the new investor with little or no knowledge on the subject or the more seasoned investor who has at least some limited experience. It's certainly not for the very experienced investor in precious metals. It's not that advanced. As it says, it's "A reference for the rest of us."

The book covers all sorts of PM investing, including mutual funds, ETFs, options, futures and physical holding. It gives the advantages and disadvantages of each and makes suggestions for several types of investors.

It also talks about the reporting of each type of bullion and touches on the IRS rulings and your responsibility when selling. It talks about the privacy issue and what type of bullion to buy to provide you with the greatest privacy.

There are also a number of wonderful resources listed in several chapters. I found a number of these resources extremely useful.

The author is a professional. He has no vested interest in selling gold or silver or other metals. It also talks to you about selling --- something many books fail to do. The author also discusses technical analysis and other ways to analyze a PM investment.

I highly recommend this book to anyone interested in investing in precious metals at any level. It talks about all forms of metals, not just gold.

-Susanna K. Hutcheson

Scholary yet readable!
This work by Paul Mladjenovic is an excellent contribution to the Dummies series. Rather than trying to entertain the reader which some Dummies authors try to do, the author writes in a serious yet comprehensible style. True to the title, the author gives dozens and dozens of websites helpful in educating oneself and in determining where to invest. The twenty-four chapters, Diversifying with Metals, The Beauty and Benefits of Metals, Discovering the Secret of Silver, Buying Metals Direct, etc. all add another dimension to the world of investing by oneself in precious metals. The work is slow-reading due to all the details but never boring or cumbersome.

Great start for precious metals
If you are just getting into precious metals, then this is the book for you. The first two things this Dummies book covers are the benefits and the risks of precious metals. Then, it covers the basics from investing, speculating, or trading. Mladjenovic's given you tips and hints that will help you understand what to do, even if you don't even know a thing about finance. (Because, I for one hardly knew anything about investing until after I read this book!) Not only does it include the basics on your gold and silver, but it also includes a chapter on uranium and base metals (e.g. copper). Mladjenovic does a great job of telling you how and why the market works. Plus, this book is a good buy anyway since precious metals are always highly valued in the world; they are a finite resource, and they are never worth zero!

I did not read the chapters on mining stocks, futures, and options. They're a bit too risky for me at the moment, but the bullion and the numismatics sections gave excellent examples and covered the basics very well. The main disappointment I had was the chapter on platinum and palladium. Compared to gold, silver, and uranium, there simply was not enough information that covered the basis of both elements. Only a few words on past market performance were mentioned. I was expecting a little more on platinum because it is the rarest metal on Earth. The websites given were also okay --good enough to point you in a certain direction but sometimes too vague.

Product Description

A detailed look at how to profit in the precious metals market
Today, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium offer a new and different profit potential for those who understand the impact of new technologies, new economic forces, and new demographics. Updated to reflect changes in this market since the mid-1990s, The Precious Metals Trader focuses on new developments that could translate into serious profit-making trends-from electrically-generated automobiles that could substantially increase demand for platinum to the increased use of composites in dentistry, which could negatively impact the use of both silver and gold. The Precious Metals Trader also explains the supply/demand fundamentals of the four precious metals-gold, silver, platinum, and palladium-and provides projections about long-term trends and profit opportunities that will coincide with them. Filled with fresh insights from Philip Gotthelf-one of the top experts in this field-The Precious Metals Trader offers readers the guidance they need to trade profitably within this dynamic market.
Philip Gotthelf (Closter, NJ) publishes the Commodex System-the oldest daily futures trading system published in the world-and the Commodity Futures Forecast Service. He is also President of Equidex Incorporated and Equidex Brokerage Group Inc.

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Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #888545 in Books
• Published on: 2005-05-02
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Hardcover
• 340 pages

From the Inside Flap
Precious metals roared back from near oblivion to become front-page news at the turn of the new millennium. It's not simply the extraordinary price volatility that has revived investor interest. Technology has changed the way we mine, use, and even invest in precious metals—and supply/demand fundamentals have quickly evolved—ushering in a new age of precious metal trading. New investment vehicles, including derivatives, interest rate futures and options, and stock issues representing physical gold (ETFs), have created "must use" strategies for the most sophisticated investors, as well as profit-packed opportunities for anyone willing to learn exciting new approaches.

If you understand the impact of new technologies, new economic forces, and new demographics within this field, the potential for profits is enormous. That's why Philip Gotthelf—one of the top experts in this field—has written Precious Metals Trading. He wants to show you exactly how to profit from the sweeping changes affecting this dynamic marketplace.

Filled with fresh insights and authoritative advice, this one-of-a-kind guide explores the new nature of the precious metals market and examines the traditional roles and market structures that have led us to this point. With a solid understanding of the forces at work behind the precious metals scene—such as the technologies that will expand or contract precious metal consumption—you'll be prepared to forecast, and profit from, both upswings and downturns in this major market.

You'll also find detailed answers to other important questions, including:

• What are the market-driving fundamentals behind gold, silver, platinum, and palladium?
• Where, when, and how will trends develop for these precious metals?
• Is there real opportunity in industrial applications like platinum fuel cells, silver-based computer memory cards, gold plasma "sono-luminescence" reactors, or superconductive alloys?
• How has the change in monetary and political systems around the world affected the way precious metals are traded?
• What trading strategies should be used to take advantage of the structural changes in precious metals markets?

People's lives have been, and will continue to be, surrounded and influenced by precious metals. Yet precious metals are among the least understood "investments." If you want to compete and win in today's investment arena, you have to use every profitable avenue available. With Precious Metals Trading on your side, you'll learn how to add weight and performance to your portfolio with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium.

From the Back Cover
Praise for PRECIOUS METALS TRADING

"If you want to learn how to add precious metals to your portfolio, and the author of this book makes a persuasive case that you should, then read this book. Pay attention to what Gotthelf writes because he has studied the history and trading of these metals for his entire adult life. Moreover, he has traded them profitably over that period. Whether your interest is precious metal stocks, futures, options, or bullion itself, this book is the place to find out what you need to know."
—Stanley W. Angrist, former commodities reporter, The Wall Street Journal

"Because the precious metals market has a penchant for dramatic and fundamental change, Gotthelf's latest work is the bible for those who want enduring market background as a precursor to making money in these markets during these uncertain times. The step-by-step information will make that a much easier proposition!"
—Gail Osten, Executive Editor, Stocks, Futures and Options magazine

New precious metals opportunities are evolving with more profit potentials than ever before. Now, investors can buy Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) like shares of stock that represent specific quantities of gold. Mounting political and economic uncertainty demands a new and comprehensive investment outlook that includes hard assets like precious metals. Make sure you understand how, when, and why you should use the most time-tested and proven symbols of value to make your portfolio more secure. This latest update is packed with the information you need to be a more successful overall investor.

About the Author
PHILIP GOTTHELF publishes Commodex® System—the oldest daily futures trading system published in the world—and the Commodity Futures Forecast® Service. He is also President of Equidex Incorporated and Equidex Brokerage Group, Inc. Gotthelf has appeared on CNBC, MSNBC, CNN, Bloomberg, the Today show, NBC Nightly News, and The Wall Street Report. His articles have appeared in major industry publications including Barron's, Futures magazine, Investing, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, and SFO Magazine. Gotthelf is the author of three previous books: Currency Trading (Wiley), TechnoFundamental Trading, and The New Precious Metals Market.

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Customer Reviews

rational advice
A major motivation for the writing of this book is the run up in prices of gold, silver and platinum during this decade. So when I started reading this book, I expected some shrill hyping. Because in the last 25 years or so, the niche of precious metals has been about the worst performing sector in the US, considered over all mainstream investment classes.

Yet, against most of my expectations, Gotthelf offers fairly sober advice. He does point out that from 1972 to 2004, the silver price equilibrates around $5/ounce. And that, for example, a bull market in silver tends to be short lived; around 1 year. All this adds to a cautionary approach. Don't think that silver prices can keep rising indefinitely. Be a cynical bull.

He also analyses gold. For both, hedging advice is proferred. Along with writing of covered calls against any bullion that you own outright. And he cites examples of past frauds in the field of holding bullion. Keep your wits about you.

Doesn't Do The Job
The book doesn't live up to the title...in the chapter on forecasting he states, that it can't be done. I think what he meant to say was, he doesn't know how to forecast the price of precious metals. I sent my copy back.

Product Description

Truly great profit opportunities are rare. Most people never see them or take advantage of them. The secret to capitalizing on these “once in a lifetime opportunities,” is to buy into them before the knowledge of their profit potential becomes widespread. As more and more people become aware of an opportunity, the price appreciates and the potential for a big percentage gain lessens. The key is to get in on the ground floor. Such opportunities (as silver is today) often appear to be dead in the water. That dissuades most people. They won’t act until they see a price rise. Then they dither some more. Soon it’s too late. To make the most of a powerful opportunity to profit, you must act beforehand with independence and a certain amount of courage. The silver story has yet to come to the attention of the public. Most Americans don’t realize how truly important silver is to industry and how strong the demand is. Nor do they know that the U.S. government, which had almost 6 billion ounces of silver in 1942, will run out of silver this year. Even the national defense stockpile is gone. And most of all, they don’t know that the current shortage of silver is greater than the known world supply. There is not going to be enough silver to go around. “In my opinion, there will never be a more bullish coming together of factors for any asset than there is for silver today. It is quite literally bullish beyond our ability to fully comprehend. Nothing this good will ever stare you in the face again. Look at the facts. If you understand fully what I am saying about silver, you are going to own it.” ―Theodore Butler

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Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #7042998 in Books
• Published on: 2001
• Binding: Paperback
• 111 pages

Product Description

"Commodities Rising, part memoir and part investment guide, provides a unique and practical perspective that is based on a rare combination of professional experiences."

-Donald F. Larson, Senior Economist, World Bank

"Jeffrey Christian brings twenty-five years of commodity market experience to his thoughtful and insightful new book. A keen analyst, Christian debunks many commodity market myths. There has been a substantial underinvestment in commodity research of late. His book is a 'must-read' for any investor wishing to avoid the pitfalls present in physical commodity investments."

-Terrence F. Martell, PhD, Saxe Distinguished Professor of Finance, Director, Weissman Center for International Business, Baruch College, CUNY;Public Governor, New York Board of Trade

"If you've read one of the recent 'commodity craze' books, you'll appreciate the more careful, thorough account Christian provides here. His anecdotes and analysis will convince you that this is truly an insider's assessment."

-Peter A. Biebel, Vice President, Director of Futures Research, A.G. Edwards & Sons, Inc.

"In addition to its depth, Christian's book is extremely reader-friendly, presenting commodity issues from various angles. I strongly recommend to anyone interested in commodities that they read this book; and to those still unfamiliar with the subject, I recommend that they take a look. The rewards will be significant, intellectually and possibly financially."

-Takamasa Akiyama, Professor of Development Economics, Nihon University, Mishima, Japan, and Senior Advisor, Foundation for Advanced Studies onInternational Development (FASID), Tokyo, Japan Analyze the current commodity environment and look out over the next few years to identify potential profit situations in Commodities Rising. You'll learn how commodities can be used to reduce risk and increase returns in a balanced investment portfolio. Author and commodities expert Jeffrey Christian debunks much of the misinformation currently circulating about commodities and provides a reasoned reality-check you can use to evaluate the claims and promises of various publications and brokerages in the commodity field. Specific issues addressed throughout this book include:

• the variety of commodity investments?exchange traded funds, stocks, futures, and options;
• commodities in the global economy;
• commodity trading/investing strategies.

Filled with in-depth insights and engaging anecdotes gleaned from the author?s 30 years in the commodity markets, this is an invaluable resource for the serious investor or trader.

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Product Details

• Amazon Sales Rank: #610296 in Books
• Published on: 2006-06-23
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Hardcover
• 272 pages

Review
"one of the most brilliant and independent-minded analysts. . . " (Barron's, December 18, 2006)

…you would definitely look like you did your homework with that in your man-bag.' ( City Wealth, November 2006)

From the Inside Flap
Commodities markets are a fascinating part of the world economy and financial markets. Besides being the building blocks of the real economy, commodities provide investors with superior long-term investment performance results and offer traders tremendous short-term opportunities.

Over his thirty-year career, commodities expert Jeffrey Christian has gained broad firsthand knowledge about how these markets work; how commodities are monetized and traded around the world; and how these various transactions are executed. Now, in Commodities Rising, he wants to share those experiences with you.

Written in a straightforward and accessible style, Commodities Rising analyzes the current commodity environment and looks out over the next few years to identify potential profit situations for investors and traders. More importantly, it will show you how commodities can be used to reduce risk and increase returns in a balanced investment portfolio. You'll be introduced to a variety of ways in which you can gain exposure to commodities—through both direct and indirect means—as well as discover some specific strategies that will allow you to use the instruments you choose effectively and manage your positions with confidence.

Commodities Rising also works hard to debunk much of the misinformation currently circulating about this market, and provides a reasoned and authoritative reality check. Some of the more widely circulated myths are addressed, including the concept of a long-lasting supercycle in rising commodity prices and the idea that China will be a massive consumer of commodities whose actions will drive prices even higher.

The second half of this book takes a deeper look at sixteen specific commodities grouped under the following headings:

• Precious metals: gold, silver, platinum,and palladium
• Energy: petroleum, natural gas, and uranium
• Tropical agriculturals: cocoa, coffee, and cotton
• Grains: corn, soybeans, and wheat
• Base metals: copper, lead, and zinc

Each chapter includes critical background information needed to assess the attractiveness of these individual commodities as investments.

Filled with in-depth insights, practical examples, and a number of engaging anecdotes, Commodities Rising is an invaluable informational resource for today's serious investor or trader.

From the Back Cover
Praise for Commodities Rising

"Commodities Rising, part memoir and part investment guide, provides a unique and practical perspective that is based on a rare combination of professional experiences."
—Donald F. Larson, Senior Economist, World Bank

"Jeffrey Christian brings twenty-five years of commodity market experience to his thoughtful and insightful new book. A keen analyst, Christian debunks many commodity market myths. There has been a substantial underinvestment in commodity research of late. His book is a 'must-read' for any investor wishing to avoid the pitfalls present in physical commodity investments."
—Terrence F. Martell, PhD, Saxe Distinguished Professor of Finance, Director, Weissman Center for International Business, Baruch College, CUNY; Public Governor, New York Board of Trade

"If you've read one of the recent 'commodity craze' books, you'll appreciate the more careful, thorough account Christian provides here. His anecdotes and analysis will convince you that this is truly an insider's assessment."
—Peter A. Biebel, Vice President, Director of Futures Research, A.G. Edwards & Sons, Inc.

"In addition to its depth, Christian's book is extremely reader-friendly, presenting commodity issues from various angles. I strongly recommend to anyone interested in commodities that they read this book; and to those still unfamiliar with the subject, I recommend that they take a look. The rewards will be significant, intellectually and possibly financially."
—Takamasa Akiyama, Professor of Development Economics, Nihon University, Mishima, Japan, and Senior Advisor, Foundation for Advanced Studies onInternational Development (FASID), Tokyo, Japan

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Customer Reviews

Should be retitled "Commodities Bear"
This guy completely rebuffs Jim Rogers' thesis of a new bull market in commodities. Someone is very wrong here and I'll put my money on Rogers being right. Given his assocation with Goldman Sachs, who many believe is now a quasi-government operation, used in order to "manage" the price of everything from the S&P index to the gold price, this book is a disinformation project masquerading as a "rational" and evenhanded analysis of the commodities markets. Much of the information on the growing demand for commodities in China is presented in such a way as to make the reader believe that becauase the average Chinese worker makes less than $2 a day, that, demand for raw materials in China is overstated. He assumes that it would be the average Chinese citizen as the ultimate consumer of these raw materials, and therefore, he says , since they cannot afford to buy " a copper plated" frying pan on $2 a day, that demand for copper would be overstated. The fact of the matter is that the Chinese, have committed to massive PUBLIC infrastructure projects for the next 20 years, that will require huge amounts of raw materials, most of which will need to be imported as China has a very limited amount of raw materials domestically. The author argues that China is becoming a net EXPORTER of raw materials!!! This is simply not true. China is now scavaging the globe trying to buy up whole raw material companies, in Canada, the US, Australia and Africa to meet their projected needs for the next 20 years. One recent example of this was their bid for Unocal, which was subsequently rejected via defacto veto by the Bush administration.

In addition, the US FED and CB's, because of the massive public and private debt obligations will be forced to massively inflate over the next 10 tears or so, or they will suffer a deflationary worldwide depression; therefore, the only prescription will be for continued worldwide growth with relatively high inflation. This fact alone should carry most commodities to multi-year highs, not to mention overall macroeconomic supply and demand.

This author argues that worldwide commodity supplies are catching up with demand, and that may be somewhat true on a short term basis, however, and a macro long term basis , there is no way supplies can meet demand based upon at leat 2 billion NEW consumers who are slated to enter the global middle class in the next 20 years.Even though raw materials may be a smaller component of overall production in the 21st century, there are a fixed amount of raw materials, which at best can be exracted on a linear basis. while worldwide demand will increase geometrically.

I would advise any reader of this book to read Jim Rogers' book and think for themselves.

Excellent Discussion, Not-so-terrific investment ideas (4.5*)
In a very pithy, interesting discussion, the author discusses the various aspects of commodities, focusing significantly to dismiss some of the "hype" associated with it. The author reinforces the diversification and hedging benefits of commodities, the need to treat it as a separate asset class and asserts that a lot of money can be made, if done correctly. Point taken. However, the book doesn't really directly address the second portion of the title (how to profit..). No specific investment vehicles or companies or trading strategies are discussed in detail. Limited mention of ETFs and mutual funds is mentioned (no specifics though). Perhaps, the question was supposed to abstract and the discussions at a fairly-high level. If that is the intent, the author succeeds in that (that minor issue takes away 0.5 star from this book!). If you are looking for an excellent discussion on commodities and an intelligent discussion on what the future may hold for it, this is a good book; however, if you are looking for specific recommendations, this book will disappoint you.

commodities
I noticed this book on the shelf at the local bookstore and bought it. It seems surprising that for a book I found right at the bookstore, and on a currently hot topic, it only currently ranks in about the 400,000 range.

The fact that Mr. Christian frequently appears on financialsense.com news hour certainly contributed toward my interest in the book, since I consider financialsense the world's premiere source for informed business news and analysis. (although I haven't developed any strong feelings one way or another about Mr. Christian's commentary to-date.)

As another reviewer pointed out, the book is comparatively bearish compared to most commentary from those involved with commodities. (establishment "bubblevision" commentators who aren't personally involved in commodities tend to be much more pessimistic about them, of course. By the way, I just read Fleckenstein's book on Alan Greenspan and I highly recommend it. He indicates in there that he was the originator of the term "bubblevision". A man far ahead of his time!)

Now, back to the book. I would say it is not bearish, but rather neutral during a time when most in the field are highly bullish. So compared to the prevailing mood he looks bearish.

Certainly in the time since his book came out commodities have far outpaced his expectations.


I would guess that a couple of his mistakes were:


1). Not anticipating the huge runup in petroleum prices, he was unaware of the dampening effect that high energy costs would have on economic viability of new and/or expanded mining operations.

2). He doesn't seem to have been very cognizant of the inflationary impact that monetary expansion would have on commodities prices.

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That being said, the tone of his book is one of him having been astute in the last couple decades in carefully assessing supply and demand trends, allowing him to accurately assess trends in commodities prices. I don't have independent knowledge of this stuff to judge how valid that is, but his assertions strike me as largely credible.

One thing he puts a lot of emphasis on is the shoddy nature of much of the analysis that is performed on commodities- particularly as it relates to inaccurate and incomplete assessment of supply and demand. He points out a number of flaws in some analyses, such as not accounting for all sources of supply such as recycled material, sales from stockpiles, etc., as well as double-counting of material that moves back and forth across national boundaries at different points in the process.


Overall I found his book a worthwhile contribution, and considering his long and extensive career analyzing commodities, I am inclined to believe that for the most part he knows what he is talking about.

The most useful thing I got out of the book is a feeling that I need to view the "facts" provided in analyses and commentary about commodities with a healthy dose of skepticism.


I don't know that his book will trigger any change in my investment philosophy, however. I am heavily invested in:

1). large oil companies. As a value investor I usually invest in very small companies, because value criteria usually show those as being far better bargains than the big companies. But in the oil business that is not true, you find large oil companies like Conoco selling at PE's of 6-8 and enterprise value to BOE ratios of 12 or so and you won't find any better bargains among the small fossil fuel companies.

2). Junior gold exploration companies who have established that they have substantial high-grade gold deposit(s) on their property in politically low-risk jurisdictions (primarily eastern Canada), and which sell at attractive price to gold in the ground ratios (typically $10-50 dollar per ounce of gold) There has been much commentary about how absurdly cheap the junior mineral exploration companies currently are relative to larger mining companies and the commodity prices themselves.


As another reviewer pointed out, this book primarily discusses the commodities themselves, and does not delve into actual investment alternatives or approaches. That was fine for me because the former was more what I was looking to learn about from this book.